José Antonio Kast won the runoff in Chile’s presidential election on Sunday, December 14th, with 58% of the votes. His resounding victory represents a radical turning point for the country. Far from being an isolated phenomenon, Kast’s rise in Chile is part of a powerful conservative wave that is reshaping the political landscape throughout Latin America.

Chile’s recent history is marked by spectacular political volatility, with the country moving in just six years from a massive popular uprising against the foundations of neoliberalism to a situation where the far right has become the dominant political force.

Since the end of the dictatorship in 1990, Chile had generally been governed by moderates from both the left and the right, which ensured a stable political and economic environment. This environment brought prosperity, progress, financial stability, and a strong global reputation for the country. However, this long-standing model ultimately proved incapable of tackling rising concerns among Chileans, such as increasing inequalities, the fight against corruption, insecurity, and illegal migration. The political class that had brought stability began to be seen as disconnected elites whose primary interest was maintaining their own position while the country underwent profound changes. This deep societal fracture was dramatically revealed during the "estadillo social" of 2019, an anti-elite social movement that shook the entire country and its political landscape.

The meteoric rise of José Antonio Kast was built upon the ruins of the progressive momentum that began in 2019. The initial desire for renewal and a break from the perceived out-of-touch political class was powerfully illustrated by the 2021 presidential elections, which resulted in a runoff between the two extremes: José Antonio Kast and Gabriel Boric. However, just four years later, the political pendulum has swung back decisively in Kast’s favor, marking the end of the progressive impulse. This reversal coincided with the ultimate failure and abandonment of the Constitutional revision process in late 2023, which deeply affected Boric’s term and served the opposition.

The presidential campaign served as a major setback for moderate candidates. Moderate figures were defeated in primaries. For instance, Carolina Toha lost to the more progressive Jeannette Jara on the left, while center-right candidate Evelyn Matthei finished a distant fifth in the first round with only 12.46% of the votes, trailing more populist and extreme candidates like Franco Parisi and Johannes Kaiser. The significant vote for Franco Parisi, who finished third in the first round, further highlighted the pervasive dissatisfaction among Chilean voters.

Without a majority, Boric’s government struggled to pass its reforms through Congress. Furthermore, Boric was consistently depicted by the right wing as a “dangerous communist” who aimed to nationalize Chile’s main companies and "turn the country into another Venezuela”. This depiction was largely exaggerated, but it permeated business circles and pushed many right-wing Chileans to defend their interests more fiercely by voting for radical candidates. In addition to legislative difficulties, Boric’s term was plagued by an overall impression of inexperience, marked by several moral and corruption scandals, as well as significant governmental mistakes; the most recent example being the methodological error in collecting electricity bills that generated overpricing for citizens and led to the resignation of the Energy minister.

José Antonio Kast capitalized on the left’s inability to deliver a successful Constitutional revision by focusing his conservative agenda on "restoring order", battling insecurity, and clamping down on illegal migration. Over the past decade, Chile has experienced an unprecedented wave of migration, mostly coming from Venezuela. This marks a major shift for Chileans, as the nation, nestled between the Pacific Ocean and the Andes mountains, is unaccustomed to welcoming such large numbers of foreigners. This new reality has set the stage for the far right as well as the media to capitalize on insecurity fears and promote a “mano dura” policy. José Antonio Kast has promised to deport more than 330,000 illegal immigrants as soon as he is sworn in, although he has not explained into details how this will be implemented. Further security measures include proposals to build border walls, deploy the military to high-crime areas, and establish a police force modeled after the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to rapidly detain and expel illegal migrants.

Economically, Kast promises market-friendly policies and reduced state intervention. A core component of his plan is a significant reduction in public expenditure, with a pledge to cut public spending by $6 billion within the first 18 months of his mandate. He also intends to introduce fiscal reforms favorable to businesses, specifically proposing to lower the effective corporate tax rate for medium and large companies from 27% to 23%. Furthermore, he aims to support private investment, particularly through Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), mentioning key concession projects such as desalination plants, prison construction, and health facilities. In terms of social policy, he seeks to reform the pension system by eliminating the "solidarity" branch and tackle high wait times in public hospitals by potentially involving the private sector.

Despite his resounding victory in the runoff, Kast faces immediate challenges in translating his radical platform into legislative reality. His party has not secured a majority in Congress, and even when combining all right-wing parties, he will not command an absolute majority in either the Senate or the lower house. This divided structure means that his more radical proposals are likely to encounter significant pushback.

The political fragmentation is evident: the Senate is currently split evenly between left and right-wing parties, and the populist People’s Party holds the swing vote in the lower legislative body. As such, many analysts believe Kast will be compelled to adopt a more moderate stance to successfully pass his key reforms. While he is highly expected to focus on security policy, where there is less uncertainty about his intentions, other pledges—such as cutting public spending or changing laws on issues like abortion, which requires more than half of Congressional support—will be difficult to implement without cross-party cooperation.

Kast's success is not an isolated incident; it is interpreted as part of a powerful conservative wave that is reshaping the political landscape throughout Latin America. His victory marks the latest win for the resurgent right in the region.

Chile now joins countries led by similar figures, including Argentina’s Javier Milei, Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa, and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. This regional phenomenon represents a broad shift away from the center or the left, as evidenced by the election of the centrist Rodrigo Paz in Bolivia, which ended nearly two decades of socialist rule. This trend aligns Kast with other Latin American leaders who are closely tied to the politics of Donald Trump, positioning Chile in a bloc focused on strengthening public security, curbing illegal immigration, and revitalizing commercial relationships based on shared values of "life, liberty and private property," as noted by Argentina’s President Milei. Kast’s presidency thus signifies Chile’s decisive break from its moderate past and its integration into a powerful, emerging conservative movement sweeping the hemisphere.