In recent days, American pressure on Venezuela has significantly increased. Donald Trump mentioned the possibility of a ground intervention and stated that Venezuela's airspace should now be considered "closed," without providing further details. As the likelihood of an American intervention becomes more probable, different scenarios appear to be emerging.
Rising tensions between the USA and Venezuela
Since August, Washington appears to have made Venezuela a priority and is applying a "maximum pressure" strategy. The United States has deployed significant military resources in the Caribbean and regularly targets vessels suspected of carrying drugs. Officially, Washington is at war with drug trafficking off the coast of Venezuela, nothing more, nothing less.
Nevertheless, things seem to be accelerating in recent days: the Trump administration is becoming more aggressive and now suggests that the U.S. military could intervene directly in the air or on Venezuelan soil. On November 14, Pete Hegseth, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, announced the launch of Operation "Southern Spear" aimed at targeting "narco-terrorists" in Central America. At the same time, the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier arrived in the Caribbean, reinforcing the U.S. military presence that has been steadily increasing in recent months. More than 10,000 troops, a dozen combat ships, and at least 60 fighter jets are currently stationed at U.S. bases in Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago.
Additionally, on November 24, the United States officially recognized the Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization. There is confusion about this organization, which doesn't really exist: it originally referred to corrupt military and officials in Venezuela. This is of little concern to Washington and Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, who believes that this organization is "responsible for terrorist violence" on the American continent. Following this, Donald Trump stated that operations could be conducted "by land" to arrest drug traffickers. On Sunday, November 30, on the X network, the American president announced that the airspace "above and around" Venezuela should now be considered closed, before downplaying this announcement a few hours later aboard Air Force One. In the span of fifteen days, the crisis between the United States and Venezuela seems to have escalated to the point where a U.S. military intervention now appears plausible.
Meanwhile, Nicolas Maduro has made several public appearances (which have become very rare in recent years) and has multiplied calls for peace. He has also appeared alongside his generals and claims that the country is ready to respond to any attack. The Venezuelan military is very active on social media, conducting numerous military exercises. A defense plan for Caracas has been implemented, and some strategic routes have been cut off. In reality, the Venezuelan armed forces would not stand a chance against those deployed by Washington. Nicolas Maduro seems to be betting that Donald Trump is bluffing and will not attack Venezuela. A plausible but risky hypothesis. Donald Trump himself confirmed that he had spoken by phone with Maduro last week, just days before announcing the closure of Venezuela's airspace, suggesting that the discussions were not fruitful.
The different possible scenarios in Venezuela
According to various analysts and specialists in American and Venezuelan foreign policy, four possible scenarios can be considered regarding the evolution of this crisis:
Status quo: Maduro resists Trump's bluff - probability: 20%
In this scenario, the current situation remains unchanged for several weeks, and Donald Trump eventually loses interest or abandons the idea of a regime change in Venezuela. The pressure on Venezuela was merely a show of force serving Trump's political interests in the United States: the fight against illegal immigration and drug trafficking. Washington could maintain a deterrent force in the Caribbean area and neutralize vessels suspected of carrying drugs. Meanwhile, discussions could begin with Maduro to reach a "deal" where the Venezuelan president would commit to certain points, such as resuming negotiations for a democratic transition, taking back Venezuelan immigrants deported by the American administration, and granting greater access to Chevron to the country's oil resources. This scenario would be a political victory for Nicolas Maduro and a blow to the Venezuelan opposition. It is made plausible by the ambiguity of the Trump administration: the president deploys troops while speaking on the phone with Nicolas Maduro. Moreover, Donald Trump would be exposed to even more criticism for deploying so many resources for an almost negligible result for the United States. The president could again be accused to “chicken out".
The Venezuelan army yields to American pressure - probability: 30%
The United States continues to exert intense military pressure around and over Venezuela and eventually causes the Venezuelan army to announce it no longer supports Nicolas Maduro. Washington could offer an exit route to the Venezuelan president, who would go into exile in a friendly country (Cuba, Russia, Turkey...) as well as guarantees to the high military command members, who would oversee a political transition. Negotiations would open to determine the conditions under which the opposition could come to power. A process that could be long and would require concessions from the opposition. This scenario depends heavily on the political will of the American administration, namely whether it is determined to maintain pressure to truly achieve a political transition (and not settle for a "deal" with Maduro). It also depends on the loyalty of the Venezuelan army to Nicolas Maduro. So far, Venezuelan generals have always firmly supported the president of Venezuela, even after the opposition's victory in the presidential election in July 2024. Therefore, American pressure would need to be strong enough to cause a clear break between the army and Maduro.
A regime change via a targeted intervention - probability: 40%
In this scenario, the United States strikes in a targeted manner, from the air and/or sea, at military targets and important infrastructure in Venezuela. Given the balance of power, the United States could neutralize the Venezuelan military apparatus in a very short time, leading the army to abandon its support for Nicolas Maduro. Here too, the Venezuelan president and some high-ranking officials could negotiate their exit from the territory. The opposition led by Edmundo Gonzalez and Maria Corina Machado would be called to take power and establish the conditions for a return to democracy during negotiations with the chavista political class still present within the legislative and judicial powers. This scenario is perhaps the most plausible because it would correspond to what happened in Iran last June, where after several warnings, Washington eventually took action in a very targeted manner to destroy nuclear sites. Such an operation would earn Donald Trump the same laurels: showing that the United States is capable of intervening quickly and effectively against an "enemy" state without entering into a direct conflict.
A direct operation on Venezuelan soil - probability: 10%
A Marine commando lands on Venezuelan soil with the objective of taking control of certain key infrastructures and ousting Nicolas Maduro. At least part of the Venezuelan army resists, and the situation becomes complicated. Whether this operation is successful or not, the political transition that begins is tainted by American interventionism and suffers from a legitimacy deficit. Political negotiations drag on, and no legitimate government seems able to emerge, worsening the humanitarian crisis in the country and delaying the return of millions of Venezuelan emigrants to their country. This scenario is unlikely given that a direct operation on Venezuelan soil would have significant internal repercussions for Donald Trump but also on an international scale. Trump would definitively break with his promise not to engage the United States in a new conflict. He would risk putting American armed forces in difficulty against a relatively insignificant adversary. Moreover, Russia or China could then justify their own operations in foreign countries. Given Donald Trump's ambiguity and the uncertainties about his strategy in Venezuela, no hypothesis can be excluded, and all scenarios seem, in a way, credible.
Is a US intervention the right solution ?
A recent article in the New York Times has sparked significant reactions from regional experts in recent days. The author points out that Maria Corina Machado and the American administration are making unverified accusations against Nicolas Maduro. He compares a possible American intervention in Venezuela to that in Iraq in 2003, which was based on false accusations without evidence. Other criticisms have recently emerged, explaining that a possible American intervention could lead to an even worse situation: the risk of the country being left without a government, experiencing a new economic collapse, and facing humanitarian emergencies. Some also argue that given the "divisions" among opposition members, they may not be legitimate enough to ensure a democratic transition.
These criticisms are not entirely unfounded, but they should not overshadow the magnitude of the crisis Venezuela has been experiencing for over a decade. The UNHCR estimates that since 2013, 7.7 million Venezuelans have left their country, fleeing a catastrophic economic situation marked by unprecedented hyperinflation and shortages of essential goods and medicines. According to estimates, Venezuela's GDP has dropped by 70 to 80% over the past ten years, and nearly 20 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance.
From the early years of this crisis, caused by the fall in oil prices, Nicolas Maduro's regime has been unable to address it. Cornered, the Venezuelan president, designated by Hugo Chavez as his successor, shifted to an authoritarian regime, excluding the opposition from democratic institutions and imprisoning opponents and their relatives as the country plunged into an unprecedented economic crisis. Nicolas Maduro had several opportunities to relinquish power, whether in 2019 when Juan Guaido was the opposition representative or during the July 2024 elections, won by Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who was ultimately forced to exile in Spain a few days after the vote. For more than a year before these elections, Nicolas Maduro had agreed to negotiate with the opposition the conditions for holding this election and a possible democratic transition. Conditions that he ultimately never respected. On the contrary, the repression of political opponents intensified after the presidential election.
An American intervention is certainly to be avoided as much as possible. But for many Venezuelans and most observers, there is no scenario in which Maduro's regime voluntarily and peacefully relinquishes power. This regime has long ceased to respect democratic principles and has entered a survival mode, imprisoning its opponents and doing everything to cling to power. It is hoped that the use of force will not be necessary, but that American pressure will be brought to a breaking point, finally leading to a political transition.